WEATHER WATCH: The potential exists for more heavy rain and flooding next week as a series of upper-level disturbances drags across the islands
Our take
As we look ahead to next week, a series of upper-level disturbances are poised to impact the Hawaiian Islands, potentially bringing heavy rain and flooding. Starting as early as Tuesday, these systems are expected to draw abundant moisture from the tropics, increasing the likelihood of significant rainfall across the region. The National Weather Service in Honolulu notes that, similar to previous kona storms, this rain may persist for several days. While confidence in the exact timing and severity of the rainfall will improve as we approach the event, it’s crucial to stay informed throughout the weekend. Residents are encouraged to monitor updates to prepare for the potential impacts of this weather system.
As we look ahead to the coming week, the forecast indicates a series of upper-level disturbances that could bring significant rainfall and potential flooding across the islands. As reported, these systems are expected to draw abundant moisture from the deep tropics, with the possibility of heavy rain starting as early as Tuesday. This situation is reminiscent of the recent kona storms that have already left their mark, raising concerns about the impact of sustained rainfall over multiple days. For further context, you might find our previous pieces insightful, including WEATHER UPDATE: Another kona storm may bring periods of moderate or heavy rain throughout the week, bringing renewed concerns for flooding across the islands and WEATHER UPDATE: A final round of moderate to heavy rain will move across the islands on Sunday and Monday before more favorable conditions settle in for the rest of the week.
The meteorological landscape of Hawaii is complex, and while we may be accustomed to sudden weather shifts, the potential for heavy rain and flooding should prompt everyone to stay informed and prepared. The National Weather Service has indicated that the exact timing and extent of this upcoming weather event remain uncertain, which adds an element of unpredictability to the situation. As the winds shift to a more southerly direction and moisture levels increase, residents and visitors alike should be mindful of the risks associated with flooding, especially in areas prone to water accumulation. The variability in rainfall projections across different models only underscores the need for vigilance.
Rainfall totals predicted for various locations exhibit a wide range, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding this weather system. For example, while some models suggest significant accumulation in areas like Honolulu, others forecast much lower totals. This disparity highlights the challenges that meteorologists face in providing accurate forecasts, particularly when dealing with complex upper-level disturbances. The local community's engagement with these forecasts is crucial, as it allows individuals to make informed decisions regarding their activities and safety. For those interested in monitoring updates, resources such as the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency can provide timely information.
In light of the upcoming rainfall and its potential impacts, it’s essential to consider not just the immediate effects of heavy rain but also the broader implications for our environment and community. Heavy rainfall can lead to soil erosion, affect local ecosystems, and raise concerns about water quality in streams and coastal areas. As we navigate these weather patterns, we must also think about how our natural surroundings are affected and the importance of maintaining a balance between enjoying our beautiful island lifestyle and respecting the power of nature.
As we prepare for what lies ahead, it’s worth pondering how these weather events shape our experience of island life. Will the rain bring the lushness that we cherish, or will it lead to disruptions that challenge our daily routines? Staying connected with local updates will be key, and engaging with the community during these times can foster resilience. As we embrace the vibrant spirit of our island, let’s remain mindful of the adventures and challenges that nature presents, and be ready to adapt as we weather the storm together.
Key points
As of 9:00 PM HST on Thursday, April 2:
- A series of upper-level disturbances may move across the islands next week.
- These systems will pull abundant moisture from the deep tropics to the islands.
- The potential exists for heavy rain and flooding across the islands starting as early as Tuesday.
- As with the previous two kona storms, rain from this event could last for several days.
- It remains too early to determine the exact timing and extent of this rainfall event.
Forecast synopsis
As of 3:45 PM HST on Thursday, April 2:
From the National Weather Service office in Honolulu:
Early next week, the first of a potential series of upper level troughs will move by north of the state. This will shift low level winds around to SE and start to bring increased moisture from the south. Tuesday into Wednesday, the moisture appears to increase enough to significantly raise the chance of moderate to heavy rain over the area, and winds may become southerly. There is still a good deal of model spread on how strong this next potential system will be and how much rain may be headed our way. However, the potential for heavy rain and flooding is there, and this will be watched carefully. Confidence in the forecast will increase, as always, as we get closer in time. Please keep yourself updated through the weekend for the latest forecasts.
Weather risk outlook
As of 9:00 PM HST on Thursday, April 2:
A risk outlook has not yet been produced by NWS Honolulu.
Key: · - little to none; 1 - minor; 2 - moderate; 3 - major; 4 - extreme
Projected rainfall totals:
As of 9:00 PM HST on Thursday, April 2:
Below are some preliminary projections for rainfall between now and 2:00 PM HST on Wednesday, April 15.
Please note that it remains far too early to determine the exact timing and severity of any potential rainfall, and large differences in rainfall totals in the table below may be from large differences in timing and the location of the heaviest rain.
| City | NBM | ECMWF | GFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lihue | 1.6 | 7.6 | 1.5 |
| Honolulu | 1.8 | 9.4 | 3.4 |
| Wahiawa | 3.2 | 5.1 | 2.9 |
| Kaneohe | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Kahului | 1.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| Hana | 1.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| Molokai | 2.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 |
| Lanai | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Hilo | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Kona | 0.6 | 3.4 | 0.6 |
More information
For more information on the impacts of this system as it develops, please check out these links:
National Weather Service
- NWS Honolulu homepage
- NWS Honolulu Area Forecast Discussion
- NWS Honolulu on Facebook
- NWS Honolulu on X
Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
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