WEATHER UPDATE: Another kona storm may bring periods of moderate or heavy rain throughout the week, bringing renewed concerns for flooding across the islands
Our take
As we prepare for the week ahead, the weather forecast is painting a picture of significant changes that could affect our daily lives across the islands. The National Weather Service has alerted us to a potential kona storm that may bring periods of moderate to heavy rain, raising concerns about flooding as we transition from mostly dry conditions to a more unstable weather pattern. For those who have been following the weather closely, this update echoes the WEATHER UPDATE: A final round of moderate to heavy rain will move across the islands on Sunday and Monday before more favorable conditions settle in for the rest of the week and WEATHER UPDATE: Conditions will gradually improve as a cold front moves eastward across the islands today, but additional rain is possible on Sunday and Monday articles from earlier this month, indicating a persistent pattern of unpredictable weather.
Starting Monday, we can expect a shift in winds and the arrival of moisture from the tropics, which sets the stage for increased rainfall, especially over windward and mauka areas. The transition to southerly winds could lead to isolated downpours, particularly in higher terrain. This shift not only alters our daily plans but also raises questions about the impact on our local environment and infrastructure. As the islands are often prone to flooding, this forecast serves as a reminder of our vulnerability to natural elements. It invites us to reflect on the importance of preparedness in our communities, ensuring that we are equipped to handle the potential challenges that may arise.
As the week progresses, the anticipated development of an area of low pressure northwest of Kauaʻi is likely to bring about a series of upper-level disturbances. This combination of instability and moisture could lead to significant rainfall, possibly resulting in flash flooding from Wednesday through the weekend. The implications of such weather phenomena are far-reaching; they affect local agriculture, tourism, and even the delicate ecosystems that define our islands. It’s crucial for residents and visitors alike to stay informed about evolving conditions and to heed any warnings from local authorities.
As we navigate this potentially turbulent weather, it’s a good opportunity to connect with our community. Sharing resources and information can help us support one another, particularly those who may be more vulnerable to flooding. Moreover, this situation underscores the resilience of our island culture—our ability to adapt and respond to the challenges posed by nature. As we look ahead, it’s worth pondering how these weather patterns might impact our island lifestyle and what steps we can take to enhance our preparedness. Will we embrace this as a moment to strengthen community ties or will we retreat into our own corners?
In conclusion, as we brace ourselves for the upcoming storm, let’s remain vigilant and engaged. The weather is a reminder of the powerful forces at play around us, urging us to remain connected to both our environment and each other. This week could serve as a turning point for our local communities, prompting conversations about resilience, sustainability, and preparedness. How will we respond to these seasonal shifts, and what lessons might we carry forward into the future?
Key points
As of 9:00 AM HST on Monday, April 6:
Monday: Winds will begin to weaken and shift to a more easterly to southeasterly direction. Isolated rain showers are possible, particularly over windward and mauka areas.
Tuesday: Winds will shift to a more southerly direction, pulling abundant moisture up from the deep tropics. Isolated rain showers are possible, particularly over leeward and mauka areas. Isolated downpours are possible over areas of higher terrain.
Wednesday through Friday: An area of low pressure is likely to develop to the northwest of Kauaʻi on Wednesday. A series of upper-level disturbances will move across the islands over the next few days. Instability from these disturbances combined with the added moisture will result in periods of moderate to heavy rain, which could lead to flash flooding.
Upcoming weekend: Rainfall intensity may decrease over the weekend, but the threat of flash flooding could continue as the ground will remain saturated from the accumulated rain from earlier in the week.
Early next week: Long-range model guidance suggests that a second system could set up directly behind this storm, so impacts could continue into the upcoming week.
Forecast synopsis
As of 9:49 AM HST on Monday, April 6:
From the National Weather Service office in Honolulu:
Mostly dry and pleasant trade wind weather will continue today, with brief passing showers favoring windward and mauka areas. A significant pattern change is then expected by Tuesday as an upper disturbance and surface low pressure evolve northwest of the islands. This system is expected to draw deep tropical moisture northward over the state, leading to an extended period of southerly winds, increased chances for widespread rainfall, and renewed flooding concerns from from the middle of the week through the weekend.
Weather risk outlook
As of 8:00 AM HST on Monday, April 6:
| Island | MON | TUE | WED | THU | FRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauaʻi | · | · | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Oʻahu | · | · | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Maui | · | · | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Hawaiʻi | · | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Key: · - little to none; 1 - minor; 2 - moderate; 3 - major; 4 - extreme
Projected rainfall totals:
As of 9:00 AM HST on Monday, April 6:
Below are some preliminary projections for rainfall between now and 10:00 PM HST on Saturday, April 11.
Please note that it remains far too early to determine the exact timing and severity of any potential rainfall, and large differences in rainfall totals in the table below may be from large differences in timing and the location of the heaviest rain.
| City | NWS | ECMWF | GFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lihue | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6.7 |
| Honolulu | 5.6 | 4.3 | 7.3 |
| Wahiawa | 7.5 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Kaneohe | 7.2 | 5.7 | 5.9 |
| Kahului | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Hana | 4.2 | 14.0 | 7.5 |
| Molokai | 5.7 | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| Lanai | 4.3 | 5.6 | 7.1 |
| Hilo | 3.4 | 13.0 | 4.4 |
| Kona | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
More information
For more information on the impacts of this system as it develops, please check out these links:
National Weather Service
- NWS Honolulu homepage
- NWS Honolulu Area Forecast Discussion
- NWS Honolulu on Facebook
- NWS Honolulu on X
Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
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